It’s the first proper Group One of the season, as we descend on Berkshire for the Lockinge Stakes. No Baaeed this year, leaves the highlight race wide open. There’s also the matter of the ultra-competitive London Gold Cup to decipher too. Here are four of the Best Bets today.
1:50 – BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes – Noble Style @ 8/11 (General)
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The first race of the afternoon looks an open and shut case. Noble Style ran in the Guineas, and would have found the race a little too hot, but the form race to watch this year was last year’s Gimcrack Stakes. So far 6 horses have come from that race and won, either at two or three. Notably Cold Case and Royal Scotsman have translated the form to this year. The step back in trip for Noble Style will suit as suggests his breeding, and has already been cut for the Commonwealth. This is just a stepping stone and has every right to be odds-on.
Watch out for Desert Cop who runs in the Jeff Smith colours. A born sprinter who had his only turf start last time out. Forgive that run and he should be at his level here today, with a nice each-way price of 18/1 (William Hill)
2:25 – Al Rayyan Stakes (Group 3) – Yibir @ 6/4 (BetVictor)
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Simply put, he is the best rated horse in the field. Haskoy is second with the allowance on ratings, but still has to find 7lbs. Also, Yibir won at the Breeders’ Cup which makes him a top-level horse. But he doesn’t always perform at Group One level (A Group 1.5 horse?). There is an entry for the Ascot Gold Cup, but I feel he won’t take that route, and might go to the Hardwicke. Again, it’s a stepping stone for another Godolphin horse that can’t be opposed.
3:00 – BetVictor London Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) – Exoplanet @ 5/1 (General)
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Exoplanet hasn’t had many runs, and is with a stable that isn’t terrific form. Roger Varian is always one to avoid at this time of the year for some reason, but this horse might lift the yard’s form a bit. He was second over C&D and finished behind Military Order, who franked the form by winning at Lingfield in the Derby trial. His mark of 97 is a good one, and certainly puts him in the picture. If he wins this race Group races will come calling.
Loyal Touch is one to consider at a price for the Johnston team. It will be his first run of the season and a step up in trip will be beneficial. His family are all stayers, some are jumps horses and some are flat horses that stay a mile-and-a-half. He is also a half-brother to Irish Derby winner Sovereign which boosts his chances further. There’s also form from a Goodwood maiden he finished third in, as the Foxes won the Dante this week. Frankie Dettori is always an eye-catching booking, and will be pumped up for a winner after a mixed Dante meeting. Each-way prices at 14/1 (William Hill)
3:35 – LOCKINGE STAKES (GROUP ONE) – MY PROSPERO @ 11/2 (William Hill)
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I’ve looked back at the St. James’ Palace Stakes from last year, and there was some really good form that came out of it. Those who finished in the first four could only be separated by a quarter of a length, which showed the competitiveness of last year’s crop. My Prospero was the one who caught the eye most, who reappears here. He is one, I imagine, to go further from here, maybe the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, judging by his performance on Champions Day. But his record fresh is very good, not finishing outside the top three. For me, he shows the most form and has the most positives to win the race.
Spare a thought for Lusail, who was second in the St. James’ Palace last year and is way down in the betting. He seems to be competitive over firmer ground, and given the lack of rain forecast in Berkshire he may just get what he wants. Ryan Moore is the eye-catching booking, and currently operates at a 20% strike rate. 33/1 is a price Lusail should not be at.
And as always, The very best of luck!
